The US is likely past the worst of its supply-chain nightmare. But recent improvements haven’t been enough to cool inflation, and the latest data suggests prices will keep soaring for the rest of the year.

The country’s inflation problem is a two-pronged issue. The shipping delays and port bottlenecks of late 2021 left businesses with insufficient supply. At the same time, Americans unleashed pent-up demand throughout last year and pushed spending above the pre-pandemic trend. Too many dollars were chasing too few goods, and firms looking to protect their profits were pushed to raise their prices.

One of those prongs is slowly improving. Various indicators of supply-chain pressure, from container shipping rates to delivery times, have eased in recent months. Jefferies forecast in mid-October that the US was “past peak pinch,” and JPMorgan shared a similarly optimistic outlook last month, saying the shipping pressures were “easing in all the right places.”

But other factors suggest those forecasts might be a tad optimistic.

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