Supply chains are global, and the world is shrinking, meaning a shock to one part is a shock to the whole. And the shocks to supply just keep coming …

Just as scientists and public health officials are daring to suggest the Covid pandemic might be entering its end-game, so China announces strict new lockdown measures, sparking fresh fears that disruptions to trade will be with us for some time yet.

Is China really on the brink of an Omicron outbreak that could see the world’s economic engine room splutter to a standstill? Or is China merely doing what China does – being authoritarian, and welding its citizens indoors in the run-up to the Beijing Winter Olympics? It’s probably the latter, but only time will tell.

Either way, it’s a stark reminder that we live in uncertain times, and with 100,000 Russian troops gathering on Ukraine’s border, things are not about to get any less uncertain.

In supply chain, uncertainty is the only certainty.  

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